Thursday, December 14, 2006

Is recession in offing, the debate continues?

Few days ago, I wrote about is the recession coming? The same topic has been debated all over the world; at the business news shows, business forums and the WSJs of the world.

Some of the key indicators that shows recession is in offing are ..

  • US is still the largest economy of the world with a ¼ of the world consumption across the board - any sneeze to US may affect globally
  • US dependency on china is ever increasing and is highest at $2.2 Billion trade gap
  • Depreciating dollar v/s Chinese yuan and the Euro
  • Fed is increasing interest rate but the mortgage rates and the long term rates for the 30y bond remains the same (low)
  • Inflation is still a concern
  • Consumer confidence is taking swings up and down
  • Us automakers are not doing so well
  • The biggest of all, the housing market is certainly sluggish if not called on death bed
  • Oil is also a large concern, US may be largest of the ethanol consumers but it’s oil dependency has not been reduced. With India and china competing for the same reserve, the situation has not bettered if not worsen.
  • Possible WTO case against china – a backlash from china could be bad for world economy.

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